quote:Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll Funny, I don't recall Jews murdering people every day for not being Jewish. But you Liberals never let facts get in the way of a good meme.
No matter, Americans aren't paying any attention to Liberals anymore. We paying attention to our fellow Americans. Tell me, LF, what are you going to do when Obama leaves office to nationwide celebrations. People are already planning New Years type celebrations for when we finally see Obama replace by Trump.
The bright side of the Obama dark age is that he exposed Liberals as the domestic enemies they are and it proved that America is so strong that we can survive an enemy operative acting as POTUS. Pretty amazing. Hopefully one day Obama will pay for his crimes in front of a firing squad, but I suspect he'll just slink off to languish in his legacy of being the worst POTUS in history. Jimmy Carter is relieved.
Are you a Jewb? You sound like a Jewb. Yeah, its all them Palestinians fault.
Youre really desperate for this anti Liberal thing arent ya. On the plus side, your delusional outbursts demonstrate how you clearly do not believe your own vomit.
Whatever. What you think is of no consequence to anyone. You're an Aussie for godsake! Everyone knows what an Aussie is worth. I'm just trying to explain to you cretins what's happening because you obviously have no clue. But hey, you commies want to think you're on the winning side and that's OK by me. It will be all that much more fun watching y'all collapse into a blubbering hug-in when real Americans elect a real American POTUS again after 8 disastrous years that will exclude Democrats from the Presidency for at least half a century.
Now, in the extremely improbable event of a Democrat winning in 2016 (as likely as LF getting into MENSA), I can state with 100% certainty that states will begin seceding from the union within two decades, leading to another revolutionary/civil war that will last about a week, or however long it takes for a very well-armed Right to take out a poorly or unarmed Left. It'll be like shooting fish in a barrel except the fish are more intelligent.
Pinkos are such morons. That's why LF is a Pinko. He fits right in. Pinkos are about to get a lesson in reality the likes of which they have never seen. It's going to be fun for Americans to watch the Pinkos melt down under a Trump presidency. It will be nice to have an American as POTUS after 8 years of a Pinko trying to destroy the country. It does speak to the strength of our system that we can actually have a Pinko traitor as POTUS and survive. Not many nations could have an enemy serve a president and live. America will be around long after Europe is praying five times a day just to live. But don't believe me just because I predicted everything that's happening now some ten years ago. What the hell do I know?
quote: Polls may actually underestimate Trump's support, study finds
￼David LauterContact Reporter
Donald Trump_leads the_GOPpresidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some surveys may actually be understating his support, a new study suggests.
The_analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.
Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human” than when they are in the “anonymous environment” of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.
With Trump dominating political debates in both parties, gauging his level of support has become a crucial puzzle. The Morning Consult study provides one piece of the solution, although many other uncertainties remain.
Among the complicating factors is this: The gap between online and telephone surveys has narrowed significantly in surveys taken in the last few weeks. That could suggest that Republicans who were reluctant to admit to backing Trump in the past have become more willing to do so recently.
Another issue is that not only can polls change over time, but Trump's support in pre-election surveys might not fully translate into actual votes. He has not invested as heavily as some of his GOP rivals in building the kind of get-out-the-vote operation that candidates typically rely on, particularly_in early voting states.
Some of the polls that show heavy support for Trump have also shown him doing better among self-identified independents who lean Republican than among regular GOP voters. At least some of those independents may not be in the habit of voting in primaries and caucuses, which could make a robust turnout operation even more necessary.
On the other hand, a candidate of Trump's level of celebrity may simply not need much of a get-out-the-vote operation. No one really knows.
Another complication is that most polls made public this year have been of people nationwide, not of voters in the states that actually hold the first primaries. In Iowa, which will kick off the election season with party caucuses on Feb. 1, Trump has slipped into second place, trailing Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in the majority of recent polls.
In New Hampshire, which holds the first primary, on Feb. 9, Trump leads, but less dramatically than in national polls. In recent weeks, he has averaged a bit more than one-quarter of the vote there.
Still, the Morning Consult experiment sheds considerable light on an issue that has puzzled pollsters for months.
The firm polled 2,397 potential Republican voters earlier this month, randomly assigning them to one of three different methods -- a traditional telephone survey with live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones, an online survey and an interactive dialing technique that calls people by telephone and asks them to respond to recorded questions by hitting buttons on their phone.
By randomly assigning people to the three different approaches and running all at the same time, the researchers hoped to eliminate factors that might cause results to vary from one poll to another.
The experiment confirmed that "voters are about six points more likely to support Trump when they’re taking the poll online then when they’re talking to a live interviewer,” said Dropp.
The most telling part of the experiment, however, was that not all types of people responded the same way. Among blue-collar Republicans, who have formed the core of Trump's support, the polls were about the same regardless of method. But among college-educated Republicans, a significant difference appeared, with Trump scoring 9 points better in the online poll.
The most likely explanation for that education gap, Dropp and his colleagues believe, is a well-known problem known as social-desirability bias -- the tendency of people to not want to confess unpopular views to a pollster.
Blue-collar voters don't feel embarrassed about supporting Trump, who is very popular in their communities, the pollsters suggested. But many college-educated Republicans may hesitate to admit their attraction to Trump, the experiment indicates.
In a public setting such as the Iowa caucuses, where people identify their candidate preference in front of friends and neighbors, that same social-desirability bias may hold sway.
But in most primaries, where voters cast a secret ballot, the study's finding suggests that anonymous online surveys -- the ones that typically show Trump with a larger lead -- provide the more accurate measure of his backing.
"It’s our sense that a lot of polls are under-reporting Trump’s overall support," Dropp said.
Heh, they are starting to catch on, but they don't know the half of it. The Liberals in America are going to be noticeably quieter after 11/8/2016. That's when they get reminded what a small minority they are in America. I expect it will give them pause since they have believed their own propaganda all these years. Things are about to change in America in a big way. Americans are taking their country back from the Pinkos who have been running it into the ground most of the time for the the last half century.
I pity you, LF. I really do. You are just the sort of uninformed numbskull that Leftists have counted on to hold onto power all these years. You are one of those guilty of nearly bringing this great nation to ruin. So, now it's your turn to sit back and watch as we Americans take back our America and relegate failures like you to the 18% minority voice you deserve. Get used to being looked upon as a pariah for your selfish world view. Liberalism in America and throughout much of the West has had its shot at running countries into the ground, but your time has come to an end.
If you want a sneak peek, Trump is going to be elected by the largest popular vote in American history. A landslide comprised of people of every stripe, including many Democrats I know who have had it with Marxists running their party. American patriots, who make up about 80% of US citizens are about to speak in one voice. Obama's legacy will be made up of being the first black POTUS, being the last Democratic POTUS in at least one generation, and being the worst POTUS in history. The political pendulum has begun its rightward swing and will not move Left again for the remainder of this century.
Don't believe me, LF. Just watch it happen and learn. Enjoy your 2016.
Oh, an one more thing, Islam is a theocratic political ideology. It is not a race nor simply a religion. If people would simply educate themselves by researching Islam using the vast amount of information out there, much of it written by Muslims themselves. It is astounding how many otherwise intelligent people can be so willfully ignorant just to preserve a false narrative that fits their agenda. Anyone who learns about Islam will view it very differently. Sadly, there are too many fools like LF who prefer their feelings to the facts. I have research Islam and that research allowed me to predict everything that is happening today about ten years ago. I also know what's coming next, but I will cast no more pearls here.
Just some facts Troll.
Trump made a rather decent part of his fortune with real estate.
But he also made money in his clothing line.
Who fucking cares about Muslims and terrorists when we have gun crime everyday done by Americans and cops and other people like the Cartel? Not just Muslims.
I'm talking about our economy now.
I am not Trump's fucking Oompa Loompa here.
He believes our wages are too fucking high.
How does he look at his sweatshop workers?
The very fact that he has sweat shop workers under his employ should raise a red flag.
How the fuck else will he compete with China?
You even said so yourself that not everyone is equal in America.
If every American played the stock market and has their own portfolio,where would they get their wealth from?
Even you know we need Oompa Loompas doing most of the work.
At the end of the day we all are just ants here.
We can have our opinions but who really has the final say?
The 1% because they actually have more pull than the majority thank you Caucus and Electoral College.
Or the fucking votes of the 99%.
You just need to look at Bernie's numbers to see that the majority likes him more than anyone else.
Because they get it.
We make College tuition free with a Robin Hood tax on wall street yes I can see how wall street investors would be against it of course.
But how many people have they cheated when they drive up the value higher than what stocks are worth?
Taxing Wall Street would mean what?
Driving down the value.
Getting back to reality.
Now with College tuition free,what happens to Military requitment?
It goes down because the main reason why kids join the military after high school is to further their education with no debt.
But some like my daughter comes home with PTSD.
Some come home dead.
Others with missing limbs.
All because they want an education.
With Free tuition,those that would still join would do so to make a career.
They would have to relax their rules to include those that may not be eligible to join.
Those that made too poor of a grade to be admitted to a college. Free or not.
But my Honor roll daughter would have had another way.
And the Military would give better incentives. Not just tuition but something greater.
Oh I could have quite easily helped her with getting tuition. But she didn't want to go into debt. So it was her choice at the end of the day. Because options were limited.
What happens when employers don't have to have that responsibility to pay the health care for all their employees?
They can then afford to pay that 15 an hour minimum no?
Then at 15 an hour,if you previously made minimum wage and you now make 15 an hour,what happens to your welfare and food stamp benefits?
You are no longer qualified to receive it.
So you are still making the same income while those that already makes 15 an hour gets the REAL raises.
And then what happens to our economy?
Spending increases. Businesses boom because our economy is soaring.
And what does that mean to Wall Street?
It soars does it not?
We are on our way to hit rock bottom.
Trump's ideas will put us at even more of a deficit.
Bernie's plan would actually start having us stop borrowing from China.
In fact,we may actually start paying back more than just interest.
So I'm sorry Troll.
Your only argument is terrorism and Islam And Keep our country safe.
But you completely dismiss everything else.
What if I tell you let's let Saudi Arabia deal with that shit?
What's more realistic? That or making Mexico pay for our wall?
Maybe lets deal with the problems in our own country.
I just don't understand how you don't see that a great economy benefits everyone. And
that includes those like you that is responsible with money.
I'm really asking you this question Troll because I simply don't understand it.
Link me a TLDR article on your position here and I'll read.
But give me something please.
I don't ever turn away from anyone's opinion.
I'll try to understand it and I'll tell you if I don't.
You wouldn't be just selling me.
But to the lurkers too.
We have serious infrastructure issues in this country. Many of which are the direct result of the enormously inflated labor costs in the construction industry. So, you want free college? Okay, either sign up for four years military service, or four years national service programs designed to reduce those infrastructural costs - and not just in construction. You get paid 75% of what active duty military recruits get paid. Finish your four year term, college tuition plus books & fees are paid. Otherwise, pay full tuition to attend college. Which will make people realize that education has costs and value, whereas free college for all will do the exact opposite.
I just typed out here that my daughter now suffers from PTSD. So she's pretty much working at Tokyo Joe's. Granted she became a supervisor in only a month but she now doesn't know if she can handle her dream job and continue her education. So what you are saying is a generalization.
She was a Honor student her entire life and maybe if she didn't do the Military way things would be different for her today.
I keep explaining my stances on this shit and all I get back is shit like this.
Explain yourselves too.
Isn't a serious discussion worth it all?
You just admitted that you are okay with an Honor student choosing Military as a way to alleviate college debt as the only option.
Or be born rich.
Are you okay then with seeing people come back dead or permanently injured before they are even old enough to drink?
Because they fought for another country?
Laws, of necessity, have to be generalizations for the most part. You ask if I'm okay with an honor student choosing military service in order to afford college afterward. To which my response is yes, indeed I am. As I proposed, she would have had the option to choose civilian service instead. You also ask if I am okay with people coming home in aluminum boxes, or never coming home at all if unrecoverable. To which, again, my response is yes, indeed I am.
Everything in life is risk. Making decisions about what level of risk one will accept in order to reach a goal is what human beings do constantly. Your daughter could have stayed home, attended community college part time, and worked. Only to be abducted, gang raped, and murdered while waiting for the bus. Or shot by some gang-banger wannabe bad ass in a drive-by. Hell, all of that can still happen. You say she has PTSD now, I presume from her military service. Which is curious, because to the best of my recollection her ship was never involved in combat during her time aboard Whence comes the trauma precipitating PTSD? Ordinary service is stressful, but then, ordinary life is stressful
People get maimed and severely injured in the course of ordinary life every single day. I say that from personal experience. Dealing with that is also what we, as humans, either learn to do, or we commit suicide or some equally idiotic thing like turning to drink and drugs.
So, no, I do not favor 'free' college educations for all - people tend to value things on the basis of what it costs them, with free shit being of little value.
Every single war or 'military action' in the last 150 years this country has engaged in (approx 90 of them) has been fighting for/in another country, with most of them being fought for the benefit of major financiers and industrialists. Nothing new about any of that, and it isn't going to stop being true in the future.
People value education for what it costs them? Really, the hard work to pass with honours has fuck all to do with it? People do well in places with free education you insular fuckwits. And those that dont, just as not all in the US will do well regardless of costs, will be better at whatever it is they end up doing. Education is never wasted.
I did not say, nor did I imply, that "People value education for what it costs them?" What I said is that people tend to value things on the basis of what it costs them. Costs come in many forms, not just monetarily.
I do disagree with your platitude - education is never wasted. It very frequently is wasted.
Yeah, that last, renders your first a contradiction.
If a person, assuming we are only concerned with non finishers, does not complete lets say an accounting degree, they will either drop out after their first term of non performance, or be removed from the school as they cant go on to the next level. But he/she will be more aware of things than they were when they went in. You cant help but learn something along the way. Never an accountant? sure. But they will be better at whatever it is they go on to do, at the very least, the mind has the benefits of being slightly expanded. If part way, then they at least could go on to be quality book keepers for example. At the very least they will understand the system better, and pass that on to their kids. As a rule, society benefits.
At worst, a person who simply enrolls but never attends will waste that one term. Its not the end of the world. And its far from a rampant problem.
Ill explain the insular part to you again, free education already exists, and it works. Theres no need to pull out half baked economics. Life is social, not economic. Therefore, economics are not the be all and end all, jus tone part of an equation far more complex than your autistic mind can handle.