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fubar
mud falcon

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Well, if you had stated from the start that you didn't really want a discussion, I wouldn't have wasted my time giving you empirical evidence countering your claim.

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Old Post 04-10-2019 02:28 PM
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fubar
mud falcon

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I'll just put his here for anyone who wants to comb through the posts in this thread and understand what is happening.

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GoFuckYourselves!
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quote:
Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
The fact is, the globe hasn't warmed at all in over 20 years, but who needs facts, right?

fubar, is this true? I ask because I keep reading and seeing that huge chunks of Antarctica are falling into the ocean.

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fubar
mud falcon

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quote:
Originally posted by GoFuckYourselves!
fubar, is this true? I ask because I keep reading and seeing that huge chunks of Antarctica are falling into the ocean.



And all that missing ice the bears used to live on up north, but I suppose that's not real.

The evidence I've seen with my own eyes is what I've mentioned in my posts. I have not travelled north or south to the poles to see if what has been reported is true. But I'm willing to believe it because there is much to be gained by someone actually disproving it in a scientific way.

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Old Post 04-10-2019 08:44 PM
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fubar
mud falcon

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And think of what is gained by denying global warming/climate change. Oil interests and industrial polluters can do whatever they please.

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Old Post 04-10-2019 10:31 PM
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SmallChange
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quote:
Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
Wrong. Hey, believe the shit science if you want, but the empirical evidence betrays the ludicrous theory for the crap it is. You might ask yourself what would have to occur to convince you the GW is false. All theories have a falsifying element. All except global warming/climate change. Oh, and I know exactly what climate is and is not. The fact is, the globe hasn't warmed at all in over 20 years, but who needs facts, right?


someone needs to cut you a new asshole. shit is starting to dribble out your mouth. how full of shit do you have to be to actually need a bib?

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Old Post 04-12-2019 11:28 AM
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memdink
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quote:
Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
Wrong. Hey, believe the shit science if you want, but the empirical evidence betrays the ludicrous theory for the crap it is. You might ask yourself what would have to occur to convince you the GW is false. All theories have a falsifying element. All except global warming/climate change. Oh, and I know exactly what climate is and is not. The fact is, the globe hasn't warmed at all in over 20 years, but who needs facts, right?


The globe has warmed over the last 20 years. For example, average global surface temperatures rose three years in a row from 2013 to 2016, setting record highs for each of those years.

Let's start at the beginning. First, climate is not weather at any one or five or one hundred points in time. Climate can be measured by averaging weather over 30 year periods.

Second, climate and weather are primarily influenced by the oceans. The basic idea is that equatorial waters absorb the lion's share of heat beamed to earth by the sun and currents spread the heated water around the world. As average ocean temperatures increase, the fresh water ice stored in the greenland and antarcitc sheets melt into the sea, stalling ocean currents and inhibiting the normalization of global temperatures.

The earth's climate systems are experiencing unprecedented rates of change. Any doubts you may have about media spin or political agendas or the legitimacy of the science on this topic should be put to rest by the body of evidence accrued over the last two generations.

You may move the goal posts and suggest that you accept climate change, but you reject the assertion that the climate change occurring in your lifetime and the lifetimes of your children and grandchildren is a product of carbon dioxide generated by industrial processes. Attribution is one of the most difficult concepts in science, but significant efforts to disprove man made climate change have failed, leaving those studying the phenomenon with little alternative but to attribute it to human activity.

I don't really know if I'm writing this for you TT, because I think you're a shitbag rabblerouser spreading lies for the lulz. This is for people who are interested in trying to penetrate the noise to find the signal.

Edit:
Let's talk about the best known effects of climate change. If the Western Antarctic ice sheet melted, we can expect about 3m of global sea level rise. A monster tide that never goes out, driving millions of migrants from the coasts inland. If the Eastern Antarctic sheet melted, we can expect 60m global sea level rise.

http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/qu...-likely-happen/

If the oceans currents stop, the majority of the US becomes desert. There are some indications that desertification reaches us by 2100.

Coral bleaching occurs when coral expels it's symbiotic algae when waters are too warm, killing off vegetation and driving fish away. The world's coral reefs are home to the fish that feed up to 1 billion people per year. The loss of coral fisheries drives demand to other food sources, putting remarkable stresses on them.

It's too soon to talk about specific effects of climate change on weather events, but we can already see anecdotal evidence of outsized hurricane seasons. Harvey in Houston TX, Michael in Mexico Beach FL, and Florence in Wilmington NC have raised questions about the influence climate change is having on otherwise predictable weather patterns.

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Old Post 04-12-2019 06:51 PM
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fubar
mud falcon

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Odd how just saying the words "shit science" absolves one's burden of proof.

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Old Post 04-12-2019 07:57 PM
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GoFuckYourselves!
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I believe the science. The question is what can we do about it? And if we in the United States do things to help the situation, is it meaningless if they don't do things in China and in India and other places as well? How much are we willing to give up?

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Old Post 04-14-2019 01:31 AM
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fubar
mud falcon

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If nothing else, it's time to start learning how to live without fossil fuels since they are a finite resource. Whether or not you believe in "peak oil", oil and coal will not be replaced at the rate at which they are used.

Not to mention that gas is not even close to the primary consumer of petroleum products. All those life-saving plastics used in the medical industry are largely petroleum based. If oil is going to run out, what do you think we need more? Gas? Medical supplies?

The main reason coal and oil are the primary energy supplies is that the government hasn't sufficiently incentivized research. And oil companies lobby pretty hard to keep sustainables off the table.

What can we do? Try not to consume everyday disposables.

I've started watching lots of sailing channels on youtube, and it's appalling how much plastic garbage there is everywhere. In the open ocean. On a secluded beach in the middle of the Pacific. Just everywhere.

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Old Post 04-14-2019 02:59 AM
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GoFuckYourselves!
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Human nature, being the way it is, leads me to suspect that nothing will be done until oil actually runs out.

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Trenchant_Troll
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Those who can't debate the facts resort to doling out Nano pernts, like those are effective. Heh, Liberals are so stupid.

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Old Post 04-15-2019 05:58 AM
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memdink
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quote:
Originally posted by GoFuckYourselves!
I believe the science. The question is what can we do about it? And if we in the United States do things to help the situation, is it meaningless if they don't do things in China and in India and other places as well? How much are we willing to give up?


Intellectually direct solutions are available, but they are impractical and nonstarters politically. Capitalism and ecology are in opposition. Stop making shit. Stop buying shit. Stop throwing shit away. Turn the internet off.

Americans are particularly fond of extracting the most dollar value from their investments. We pursue wealth by minimizing expenses and maximizing profits. What are the easiest and most monetarily value oriented ways to produce energy? Mountains are low cost real estate. Appalachian labor is cheap. What are the differences in the operational expenses between fossil, nuclear, and renewable energy production? What is the pay differential between a worker with a pick axe and a wind turbine technician? The costs of energy production will land on the businesses consuming it. How do we accept reduced ROI in business?

The political solutions call for regulation. But policy makers reject basic facts, avoid the conversation, or move the goal posts in order to save their constituents and patrons from reduced returns. Assertion: Humans cause climate change. Opposition: Climate change isn't real. Assertion: Climate change is real. Opposition: I agree, but it's volcanoes.

Assuming policies to reverse human impacts on climate change were enacted in the U.S., how would other countries respond? This is the real test of American exceptionalism. Our status as the shining beacon will crystallize or shatter based on whether or not other nations voluntarily sacrifice immediate economic progress in order to ensure a more predictable future. China is already implementing the world's largest renewable energy strategies, by the way.

I believe that as long as we have the capacity for cognitive dissonance exemplified by our political leadership, long term human economic growth is doomed. The zero sum worldview, expedience, and wealth hoarding will condemn the U.S. to 2nd tier status and be the source of a generations long recession within the next century.

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memdink
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Let's talk about some basic ideas that are significant mind fucks. The straw controversy is interesting to me. I don't think this is in any way a controversial topic. The fundamentals are sound. Single use plastics are found in great quantities in the oceans and waterways. What's a small but meaningful step we can take to alleviate the pressure of single use plastics? Let's stop using straws. Why is that controversial at all?

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GoFuckYourselves!
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They do make paper straws.

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Old Post 04-17-2019 05:53 AM
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memdink
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quote:
Originally posted by GoFuckYourselves!
They do make paper straws.


And we're back to the ROI conversation. What's McDonald's cost per straw? What's McDonald's cost in straws per fiscal year? What does that translate to in environmentally friendly processes and products?

If I'm morally bankrupt and concerned only about my bottom line, I'll rouse the rabble by injecting doubts about the facts. We're not really polluting the oceans and pollution doesn't matter.

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Old Post 04-17-2019 03:30 PM
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Trenchant_Troll
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Pollution matters a lot and I materially support the clean up of real pollutants. CO2, however, is not a pollutant unless it is in very high concentrations. Global Warming is a myth and climate change is a given since it's been going on every day for the last 4.5 billion years. The truth is I couldn't care less if fools choose to cling to the shoddy science that is the foundation of that silly theory. That's the beauty of scientific arguments; sooner or later empirical evidence either proves or disproves any theory. So far the empirical evidence hasn't been favoring Al Gore's money train. In fact, the preponderance of empirical evidence actually confounds the Warmist's religion. If someone would like to prove that I am incorrect, by all means, do so and I will stand corrected. And ad hominem responses will not be considered proof.

Now, back to your groupthink.

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Old Post 04-19-2019 05:42 AM
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fubar
mud falcon

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Maybe it would help me just a little if you would define what you are referring to as "Global Warming" and what part of it, specifically you object to.

The globe is, on average, warming. Maybe the magnitude of the increase isn't impressive enough for some people, but it is happening all the same. The empirical evidence demonstrates this, and saying that it doesn't only highlights one's non-familiarity with the science.

Do you object specifically to human activity being noted as a possible/probable factor in the globe warming?

And as for ad hominems, every post you've made to this thread is full of ad hominems. But then that's you're thing, I suppose.

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Old Post 04-19-2019 02:13 PM
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J E B Stuart
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Talking Act or die!



Amen.

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Old Post 04-23-2019 05:46 PM
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Trenchant_Troll
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Fubar, what I object to is lies. Please familiarize me with the science and point to one piece of empirical & irrefutable evidence that proves the world is warming as the Global Warming believers insist sans evidence. All of their predictions based on their models have failed to materialize. It's nothing but a religion and is not a consensus by a long shot. Even if science was decided by consensus, which legit science is not, no such agreement exists in the real scientific world. If one is familiar with the science, one would know this already.

One need only go back over the last two decades and read the frantic warnings of unprecedented rising of sea levels, melting icecaps, islands submerged, droughts, famine, the end of snow, and on and on, AND all predicted by 2015. Sorry, the globe isn't warming and the climate has been changing for 4.5 billion years, so of course it's changing now, we just have a barely perceptible part in the grand game. Only arrogance can produce such delusions as having power over the climate and other collosal powers of nature.

Nevertheless, we can argue about whether it might rain all day, but until raindrops start falling it's nothing but talk.

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Old Post 04-24-2019 07:52 AM
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Trenchant_Troll
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By the way, if y'all feel the need to put your minds at ease about the climate, I'd start worrying about another iceage because if I had to bet LF's life, that bet would be on us having to survive another iceage, which I can tell you sucks way more than a warm spell. In the game of life warm is good and cold is bad, so you'd best be investing in some long johns. And bear grease to smear on your body for warmth, and ice fishing gear and snow shoes, and a wood cook stove and of course a shitload of guns and ammo in case someone comes to the door of your shelter because they can smell odor of the hitchhiker wafting from the spit where he's slow roasting. Did I say "hitchhiker"? Heh, I meant pheasant. I always get those two mixed up. Anyway, you get my drift.

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Old Post 04-24-2019 08:15 AM
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fubar
mud falcon

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quote:
Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
...Please familiarize me with the science and point to one piece of empirical & irrefutable evidence that proves the world is warming as the Global Warming believers insist sans evidence. …


The science I have mentioned is what I do for a living. Part of that is real hourly rainfall measurements (which are recorded every 15 minutes or 0.1-inches of depth, whichever comes first). These data are then analyzed to determine the total depths for whatever the desired storm duration is (1-hour, 2,3, 24, 72, etc). From that, the maximum depth for a 12-month period is determined. Simplistically (unless you want me to go into L-moment statistics), statistical analyses are used to determine what depth of rainfall can be expected for a return period (2-year, 50-year, 100-year, etc.).

Big deal, right? You may argue that this is all theory and not science, but when creating a watershed model, you are required to calibrate the model to a known event. The actual rainfall distribution is applied over the watershed model and the results are compared to stream flow gauges, surveyed high water marks, etc. Your model is not considered a good one unless it can reproduce a known, real world rainfall event and the resulting flooding to within less than 10%, and most people shoot for 5% or less.

When a new real rainfall event occurs, it just so happens that the predicted streamflow and resulting flood elevations all match pretty well with the real-world data. It might not be exactly the same, but it's usually very close.

Further, when you look at the historical recorded rainfall, the more intense storms are occuring more frequently in the last 25 years than in the preceding 100 or more years. Just plot out the data that were analyzed as part of the major rainfall technical memos over the last 100-years. If you want to disprove this science, sharpen your penicl and refute NOAA's Atlas 14 and Asquith's SIR 2004-5041. Hell, if you want, you can even view the mostly now superseded TP-40. The guys who produced TP-40 were part of that supposed greatest generation.

The methods and data sources are there for all of those reports. You can even download the rainfall info for yourself if you are determined enough.

quote:
Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
All of their predictions based on their models have failed to materialize.


So, Islands disappearing don't count?

quote:
Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
It's nothing but a religion and is not a consensus by a long shot. Even if science was decided by consensus, which legit science is not, no such agreement exists in the real scientific world. If one is familiar with the science, one would know this already.


Really nothing to respond to there.


quote:
Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
One need only go back over the last two decades and read the frantic warnings of unprecedented rising of sea levels, melting icecaps, islands submerged, droughts, famine, the end of snow, and on and on, AND all predicted by 2015. Sorry, the globe isn't warming and the climate has been changing for 4.5 billion years, so of course it's changing now, we just have a barely perceptible part in the grand game. Only arrogance can produce such delusions as having power over the climate and other collosal powers of nature.


Ah, so the issue you have is that they didn't nail the date on the button. And you are correct, climate has been changing for as long as the Earth has had an atmosphere, maybe longer. That does not mean that it isn't changing for the worse for humanity right now. The primary cause can be argued. That it is happening cannot. Well, I guess it can, since you are, but that doesn't discount volumes of evidence, unless you just mistrust all science that you haven't proved to yourself, since scientists can't be trusted, and stuff.

quote:
Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
Nevertheless, we can argue about whether it might rain all day, but until raindrops start falling it's nothing but talk.


As I've pointed out numerous times in my replies, the rain IS falling. In some places. What I did NOT mention is that other places have become drier than usual. Some places have gotten warmer. Others have gotten colder. On average, across the globe, things are getting warmer.

All of these things are predicted by the global warming models.

And if nothing else, many municipalities (especially near the coast) are having to re-write their development guidelines based on real effects of rising ocean levels. Many inland municipalities are re-writing theirs due to more common and more severe extreme rainfall events.

In the end, I don't think you'll be swayed by anything I have to say. But then, I haven't been swayed by anything you've said either. Neither of us will live long enough to find out who was right.

Last edited by fubar on 04-24-2019 at 05:07 PM

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Old Post 04-24-2019 03:22 PM
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Large Filipino
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So in essence I could be wrong but this time I think I'm right, fubar studies CLIMATE because he studies patterns over time.
What we see when we look out the window is WEATHER. That is what we see now. Like just before someone spots a tsunami. Keep with me I swear I'm going somewhere.

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fubar
mud falcon

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quote:
Originally posted by Large Filipino
So in essence I could be wrong but this time I think I'm right, fubar studies CLIMATE because he studies patterns over time.

Well, to be clear, I study how water moves through a watershed in order to predict flooding and/or design flood mitigation structures (lakes/dams, detention ponds, improved open channels, things like that). I use climatic data to help me do that. However, it is in my interests to check that climatic data before I just use it out of the box.


quote:
Originally posted by Large Filipino
What we see when we look out the window is WEATHER. That is what we see now.

Correct.

quote:
Originally posted by Large Filipino
Like just before someone spots a tsunami.

Spotting a tsunami is a "right now" kind of thing, but I don't recall one ever being weather related. It's usually caused by some geophysical process like an oceanic earthquake or large earth slide into a deep body of water.

There is a kind of wave that can be mistaken for a small tsunami, called a seiche. These are far more likely to be weather related. But you'd have to be trying really hard to see it as a tsunami.

quote:
Originally posted by Large Filipino
Keep with me I swear I'm going somewhere.

No doubt on a unicycle with a square wheel and a seat shaped like a horse cock.

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GoFuckYourselves!
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Climate change is here to stay. Let us all adapt to it and get used to it. Buy a row boat and keep it with you at all times! We have one in our living room just in case. You never know.

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