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Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-09-2004 10:59 PM:

Polls

I'm gettin' sick of just editing in a poll here and there, so I may as well do like my economic forecast thread and just dump them here.

Now, the obvious caveats:

It's early, Bush has not yet begun to fight, he's got 100 million between now and the convention, and probably another 150 million after that, polls are inherently flawed to a degree, etc etc etc. I'm not posting them as definitive results, so don't paint it that way. I'm just interested in them as helping to uncover trends and just getting a read on where things somewhat stand today. Feel free to go to town on all the reasons why these polls are largely bullshit, I'll even agree with you on more than a few, but they interest me, so maybe they'll interest somebody else.

Anyway, that said:

New Gallup Stuff came out today, I believe their first nationwide polling since it became a two-man race. Not good news for the Democrats in terms of the Nader effect, which does seem to be having an effect, but also not good news for Bush.

"When Ralph Nader is included in the hypothetical matchup, the consumer activist takes votes away from Kerry, but not from Bush. Among registered voters, Kerry receives 47% support, Bush 45%, and Nader 5% -- a three-point decline for Kerry with Nader in the race, but no decline for Bush."



"Among likely voters, Kerry gets 50% support, Bush 44%, and Nader just 2% -- a two-point decline for Kerry, no decline for Bush."



Trend-wise, the gap is beginning to close, but slowly.



We've talked here a lot about the Certainty of voters.

"Although eight months remain until the election, most voters indicate they are certain about whom they will support. Among registered voters, 76% are certain -- 40% for Kerry and 36% for Bush. Among likely voters, an even higher 83% say they will not change their minds -- with 45% voting for Kerry and 38% for Bush."



Here's what I find the most interesting, though, is the electoral analysis based on red/blue/purple:

"A comparison of support for the two candidates by the results of the 2000 election show that among likely voters, Bush is barely ahead in the states he won four years ago by more than five percentage points (which Gallup calls "red" states). He leads Kerry by just 50% to 47%. In the "blue" states, which former Vice President Al Gore won by margins of more than five percentage points, Kerry leads Bush by a substantial margin, 55% to 42%. In "purple" states -- where the margin of victory for either candidate in 2000 was five percentage points or less -- Kerry also leads by a substantial margin, 55% to 39%."



The picture doesn't significantly change with Nader in the race (purple states takes 3% away from Kerry, blue states adds 1% for Bush)

That's Gallup, which has been a bit optimistic for the Democrats this entire polling season. Here are a few more from other sources (first one says Gallup in it but was a USA Today poll):

"In the first national poll since the presidential campaign became a two-person race, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leads President Bush, 52%-44%. Kerry's 8-point lead with likely voters in the USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll comes after he effectively clinched the Democratic nomination on Tuesday and Bush followed with three speeches criticizing Kerry's record in the Senate and charging that the country would be less safe under his leadership."

ABC/Washington Post has it 53 Kerry 44 Bush w/o Nader, but 48/44/3 with him (Kerry/Bush/Nader).

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll, March 1-7, 2004.

George W. Bush / John Kerry / Ralph Nader / Not Sure
% % % %
ALL 41 44 6 8
Northeast 34 48 10 8
Midwest 39 47 4 10
South 44 41 6 7
West 44 42 6 7
Men 46 38 8 7
Women 37 50 4 8
Whites 46 40 6 7
Blacks & Hispanics 21 62 7 9

Fox News has it an even 45/45 split.

Associated Press-Ipsos Poll from March 1-3:

Bush/Kerry/Nader/Not Sure: 46 / 45 / 6 / 2




For a historical comparison, this is the polling data from the same week (which was comparable in terms of length of primaries and when it became a two-personal general election race (McCain and Bradley both dropped out following Super Tuesday):

Bush 45 to Gore 42 (Zogby/Reuters/WHDH-TV March 8-10).
Bush 49 to Gore 43 (Gallup/CNN/USA Today March 10-12).
Bush 47 to Gore 44 (Newsweek poll conducted by the Princeton Survey Research Associates March 9-10).
Gore 46 to Bush 45 (ABC News/Washington Post March 9-11).
Gore 46 to Bush 43 (CNN/Time poll conducted by Yankelovich Partners March 8-9).

I'm trying to find comparable date from 96 and 92, when an incumbent was involved, to match these with, but so far have been unsuccessful. I'll let you know.




State by state breakdown:

This is the latest numbers from the states polled February and beyond. In all cases (though some are over a month old now), these are the most recent polling data I could find for the specific states.

Arizona
Arizona State University. 2/19-22. MoE 4.7%. (November results)
Bush 46 (51)
Kerry 44 (33)

California
LA Times Poll. 2/18-22. MoE 4%.

Bush 40
Kerry 53

Connecticut
UConn. 2/26-29. MoE 4.4%.

Bush 36
Kerry 49

Florida
Miami Herald. 3/3-4. MoE 3.5%.

Bush 43 (51)
Kerry 49 (38)

Illinois
Research 2000. 3/1-3. MoE 4%.

Bush 36
Kerry 54

Indiana
SurveyUSA. 2/15-17. MoE 4.2%
Bush 51
Kerry 45

Iowa
Des Moines Register. 2/7-11. MoE 3.5%.

Bush 42
Kerry 49

Kansas
SurveyUSA. 3/3-4. MoE 4.5%

Bush 57
Kerry 39

Kentucky
SurveyUSA. 2/14-16. MoE 3.8%.

Bush 57
Kerry 41

Maryland
Mason-Dixon. 2/23-25 MoE 4%

Kerry 47
Bush 38

Massachusetts
Boston Herald. 2/27-28. MoE 4.8%.

Bush 28
Kerry 57

Michigan
Detroit News. 2/26-3/1. MoE 4%.

Bush 40
Kerry 46

Missouri
Decision Research (D) 2/14-19. MoE 3.5%

Kerry 49
Bush 46

Nevada
SurveyUSA. 2/11-12. MoE 4.5%

Bush 49
Kerry 48

New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire. 2/4-12. MoE 4.3%. (October results)

Bush 38 (49)
Kerry 53 (38)

North Carolina
SurveyUSA. 2/23-25. MoE 3.9%

Bush 53
Kerry 42

Oregon
Oregonian. 3/4. MoE 5%.

Bush 40
Kerry 45

Pennsylvania
Franklin & Marshall College. 2/19-22.

Bush 46
Kerry 47

Rhode Island
Brown University. 2/7-9. MoE 5%. (September results)

Bush 31 (36)
Kerry 53 (39)

South Dakota
Mason-Dixon. 2/5-7. MoE 4.7%.

Bush 50
Kerry 39

Utah
The Desert News. 2/19. MoE 5%.

Bush 64
Kerry 31

Washington
SurveyUSA. 2/4-5. MoE 3.2%

Kerry 55
Bush 43




More in depth, here's where Florida stands:

Miami Herald. 3/3-4. MoE 3.5%. (December results).

Bush 43 (51)
Kerry 49 (38)
Nader 3 (n/a)
Unsure 5 (11)

American Research Group. 3/3-4. MoE 4%. No trend linens.

Bush 44
Kerry 45
Nader 4
Not Sure 7


Posted by MstrG on 03-09-2004 11:11 PM:

I'll throw up a couple more links, also interesting:

Zogby - highly respected pollster, latest result from him (mid-February) shows it 46-45, Kerry

Iowa Electronic Markets - I think I got this link at Asylum in 2000. It's a futures market on various topics, including the election. I don't think they have one up yet for the 2004 presidential election yet, just one to invest in futures on who will be in the contest.


Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-09-2004 11:51 PM:

Bastards. Washington Post/ABC updated within minutes of me posting this thread.

New poll from them: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...4-2004Mar8.html


Posted by CHiPsJr on 03-10-2004 12:48 AM:

Data is always fun to play with, of course. Good post.

In 1992, Perot had the lead in JUNE.


Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-10-2004 03:08 AM:

Another good link, for historic analysis on presidential approval ratings:

http://www.radiofreemonkey.com:8080/charts/

Bush Jr's is up there slightly less than his father's, slightly more than Carter's. The graphs in the above site are a little hard to follow for amatuers like myself (but they look wicked cool), so here's another, more user-friendly:



For Bush's specific approval ratings (i.e. a composite of the polls that go into the graphs on radiomonkey), here's this:


A graph that shows Bush’s approval rating as an average of 9 different major national polls. (The polls are: ABC News/Washington Post; Gallup; Newsweek; Time/CNN/USA Today; Fox News/Opinion Dynamics; Associated Press; Zogby; CBS News/NYTimes; and NBC News/WSJ.) The center line in the graph shows the 20-day moving average of those nine polls, while the two outer lines delineate the 95% confidence area (2 standard deviations).

The bumps are 9-11, of course, followed by the buildup to the Iraq war (I think?) followed by Saddam's capture, and are currently the lowest in his entire presidency.

Actually, looking at the dates, am I wrong on that (which bumps are which)?


Posted by karen on 03-10-2004 03:43 AM:

oooh!

Man, I love charts and graphs.
Thanks, brad.


Posted by zim on 03-10-2004 06:33 AM:

someone should take away paint's access to excel.

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Last edited by CHiPsJr on 11-09-2006 at 08:23 AM


Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-10-2004 06:40 AM:

Hey, some people like to check out box scores, I dig political polls.


Posted by Spaceboy on 03-10-2004 06:58 AM:

hm. Doing a bit of light research.

9-11 is clear.
4-03 Is operation Iraqi freedom
the one in January looks to be the State of the UNion Address.
That little bumpy thing in october 03 is when the War in Iraq started to build up.

I think.
I just went to whitehouse.gov...everything the president ever did is in there. kinda cool.

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Posted by zim on 03-10-2004 07:07 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by Paint CHiPs
Hey, some people like to check out box scores, I dig political polls.
so do i, i was being silly.
__________________

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Last edited by CHiPsJr on 11-09-2006 at 08:23 AM


Posted by morgana on 03-10-2004 11:54 AM:

that's really sad, when you think about it. this president's entire career has been based off of his performance in a tragedy. all of his bumps in the graph can be related to war or warmongering instead of to real social issues that grip the country.

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Posted by mudded on 03-10-2004 01:29 PM:

Vote Bush/Dalek 2004

Exterminate!!!


Posted by CHiPsJr on 03-10-2004 02:13 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by morgana
that's really sad, when you think about it. this president's entire career has been based off of his performance in a tragedy. all of his bumps in the graph can be related to war or warmongering instead of to real social issues that grip the country.


You'll be very hard-pressed to find "bumps" in the polls of any modern US politician caused by anything other than international conflict or political conventions. Campaign finance reform was supported by 70%+ of the public and signed into law by Bush, but you'll find no bump there. Ditto prescription drug coverage.

If the voters in any meaningful way found the social issues "gripping", more action might be taken on them. They tend to be much more effective, electorally, as matters to delay action on and blame the other party for not passing.


Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-12-2004 05:07 AM:

New SUSA poll out today for Pennsylvania, showing it surprisingly tight, Kerry 49 Bush 47, with 4% undecided and 3.5% MOE. Some debate on the polling sample, which was a bit skewed Republican (how they voted in 2000, 366 respondents had voted for Bush, 300 for Gore), but still, that'll get some Democrats worried.


Posted by mmmtravis on 03-12-2004 05:21 AM:

shouldn't the prospect of four years under either of these guys have EVERYONE worried?

i nomimate rosh, is he eligible?


Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-12-2004 10:04 PM:

American Research Group. 3/9-11. MoE 3.5%. (February results)

Bush 43 (46)
Kerry 50 (48)

Republicans
Bush 81
Kerry 11

Democrats
Bush 5
Kerry 87

Independents
Bush 42
Kerry 51


Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-14-2004 11:59 PM:

Florida. Rasmussen. 3/1-13. MoE 5%. No trend lines.

Bush 45
Kerry 48

Rasmussen, who has a daily tracking national poll, notes that Kerry's Florida support is more solid than his nationwide support.
One surprise in the current Florida data is that 77% of Kerry voters are certain they will vote for him while only 72% of Bush voters say the same. Nationally, Bush voters are more solid in their support than Kerry voters.


Rasmussen's first California poll shows Kerry safely ahead in the Golden State. (53-44, 3/5-11, MoE 5%)

Illinois. Mason-Dixon. 3/8-10. MoE 4% (January results)

Bush 39 (45)
Kerry 47 (37)
Nader 2 (-)

As might be expected, Kerry holds a huge lead, 58 percent to 29 percent, over Bush in heavily Democratic Chicago and Cook County. In the once heavily Republican collar counties -- Mason-Dixon considers them to be DuPage, McHenry, Lake, Will, Kankakee, Kane, Grundy and Kendall counties -- Bush leads, but only by a 48 to 39 percent margin. Bush leads 45 to 38 percent in central Illinois and 44 to 39 percent in southern Illinois.


Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-19-2004 01:00 AM:

New Rasmussen polls out today showing it's getting close in some swing states, though Kerry still leads.

Michigan
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 44%

Fifty-one percent (51%) of all Michigan voters approve of the way Bush has performed his role as President. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Michigan voters give the President good or excellent ratings for his handling of the economy. Eighteen percent (18%) say he is doing a fair job in this area while 42% say poor.

Ohio
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 41%

Fifty-one percent (51%) of all Ohio voters approve of the way Bush has performed his role as President. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove.

Just 32% of Ohio voters give the President good or excellent ratings for his handling of the economy. Eighteen percent (18%) say he is doing a fair job in this area while 47% say poor. Nationally, perceptions of the President's economic policies have improved since the Democratic Primary season ended. It is possible that it will take a bit longer in states like Ohio where the Democratic competition actually took place.

Pennsylvania
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 44%

Fifty-four percent (54%) of all Pennsylvania voters approve of the way Bush has performed his role as President. Forty-five percent (45%) disapprove.

Forty-three percent (43%) of Pennsylvania voters give the President good or excellent ratings for his handling of the economy. Fifteen percent (15%) say he is doing a fair job in this area while 41% say poor. Those numbers are roughly in line with the national average.


That last one oughta scare the Kerry camp. Though hopefully when Kerry starts getting some fundage and the Democratic governors of those close ones start coming into play, it'll become more competitive for Kerry.

Bearing in mind that Rasumussen is a tracking poll, and not a particularly respected one at that (it lost a big chunk of credibility when it called a nearly 10 point lead for Bush in 2000). Still, being a tracking poll over a long period of time (every day over 8 months), it's got a pretty friggin huge data set. Michigan is surprisingly close and PA is, as it's been trending in other polls, a statistical dead heat. Worriesome for Kerry.


Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-21-2004 10:23 PM:

More data!

http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

Bush has a good lead in Arizona. Kerry still takes FL, OH, PA, and MI, but they're closing up fast.


Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-22-2004 04:45 AM:

Polls seem to now be split.




Zogby's newest:

March 17-19 (1065 likely voters-margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points)
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
48
President George W. Bush
46
Undecided
5

NADER FACTOR
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
46
President George W. Bush
46
Independent Ralph Nader
3
Undecided
5

Blues States
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
56
President George W. Bush
38
Undecided
4

Red States
President George W. Bush
53
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
40
Undecided
6

If a major terrorist attack were again to hit the United States...
President George W. Bush
51
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
40
Undecided
6

Overall, however, President Bush's job performance rating continues to slide with 53% of likely voters giving him an negative rating (Fair-Poor), and 46% granting him a positive rating (Excellent-Good). On the important re-elect question, only 45% say that the President "deserves to be re-elected", while 51% say it "time for someone new" in. Voters also expressed concerns regarding the country's direction. A plurality of voters (50%) feel that the United States is headed on the wrong track, while 44% say that the country is headed in the right direction.

Almost one in three (30%) identified jobs and the economy as top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (16%), the war in Iraq (12%), health care (10%), and education (8%).

Pollster John Zogby: "This is predictably unpredictable. The President's job performance is down as is his re-elect. The country's direction is a net negative. Kerry seems to have weathered the first week of both blistering attacks from the President and Vice-President and his clumsy claim of support from foreign leaders. The President holds on to strong support among Republicans, but he is having trouble with Independents. Both sides have the gloves off and this tempo should continue because the race is just so tight."




But, I've seen a lot of others that are showing Bush getting a +3-5 or so nationally, and picking up speed in key states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.


Posted by CHiPsJr on 03-22-2004 04:54 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by Paint CHiPs
If a major terrorist attack were again to hit the United States...
President George W. Bush
51
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
40
Undecided
6



Bush's numbers go UP if he fails to protect the homeland from terrorist attack???

Well, I reckon that gives him the ultimate trump card in his reelection effort, now doesn't it? No need to capture Osama...if things are looking tight in October, just let someone slip over the border with one of them suitcase nukes from the other thread.


Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-25-2004 04:38 AM:

Rasmussan again (you all know the difference between a regular poll and a tracking poll, right? This is a tracking poll). Bush's 18 million dollars in ads seem to have had very little effect. A week or so of a three point boost, and then, with this new news cycle, an 8 point drop.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Pre...acking_Poll.htm

Bush Kerry
March 24 44 47
March 23 47 45
March 22 48 45
March 21 46 45

I still assert that this election is startlingly close for an incumbent, and Kerry may well win it.


Posted by Dingle on 03-25-2004 04:51 AM:

I think alot of people who are considered unlikely voters, like myself, will turn up at the polls to vote for the simple reason that we will not stand to have Bush running our country for another 4 years.

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Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-25-2004 05:03 AM:

Thumbs up

quote:
Originally posted by Dingle
I think alot of people who are considered unlikely voters, like myself, will turn up at the polls to vote for the simple reason that we will not stand to have Bush running our country for another 4 years.


I agree 100%, and that's been my scenario for a Kerry win since Day One. Likely voters will split about 50/50, but the difference may be otherwise uninterested voters going to the polls to register their disgust with Bush.


Posted by Paint CHiPs on 03-25-2004 04:51 PM:

Rasmussen whose Tracking Poll has the race KERRY 48 BUSH 44, showing a CLARKE-EFFECT, has just released new state polls.
The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports on March 23, 2004. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 4.5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence

Missouri
BUSH 49
KERRY 42

Iowa
BUSH 41
KERRY 51

Minnesota
BUSH 44
KERRY 47

ARG poll for West Virginia:

Bush 46%
Kerry 46%
Nader 2%
Undecided 6%
600 likely voters, March 23-24,
MOE ± 4 percentage points

Gephardt is looking better and better for VP.


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