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Posted by billgerat on 09-02-2012 05:33 AM:

The Homestretch

A little more than 60 days to go. From Nate Silver at www.fivethirtyeight.com (he predicted the winning results from every state but one in 2008) here are the odds:

Electoral vote

Obama 305.5
Romney 232.5

Chance of winning

Obama 73.1%
Romney 26.9%

Popular vote

Obama 50.9%
Romney 47.9%

__________________

"Republicans: the party that brought us 'Just Say No.' First as a drug policy, then as their entire platform." -Stephen Colbert -


Posted by Large Filipino on 09-02-2012 06:00 AM:

I sure fucking hope so.

__________________


I want a Trump sex doll.
I would throw it in a Orangutan enclosure
And watch the orgy.


Posted by Brett on 09-02-2012 10:29 PM:

I'm somewhat amazed at how much support Romney is getting despite no one really supporting him or his ideas. That said, i still figured the race wouldn't have more than a 3% split.


your link is bad, bill.


Posted by billgerat on 09-03-2012 01:25 AM:

Not really. Polls only ake a small sampling of people, and also are generally weighted by the electorate they poll (see Rasmussen polls for an example). It is not unusual for polls to show a tighter race than it really is. Electoral College leanings (which is how a president is elected, not by popular vote) can show a more accurate view of the race. Nate Silver is widely respected for his prognostication of this. He has the best record of this type of predictions. Not all electoral college polling shows such a commanding lead for Obama, but all I've seen shows Obama with a big lead. Yes, Romney has a lot of support, and so does Obama, but this is base support, not undecideds. Also, do not overlook how certain segments of the voting public are falling. Romney is currently getting 0% of the black vote, and very little of the Latinos. Women are breaking more towards the Dems. White males seem to be Romney's only strong suit, but he cannot win with just their vote alone. All in all, Obama stands a very good chance of being re-elected.

__________________

"Republicans: the party that brought us 'Just Say No.' First as a drug policy, then as their entire platform." -Stephen Colbert -


Posted by billgerat on 09-03-2012 03:58 AM:

“The demographics race we’re losing badly,” said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.). “We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.”
--Washington Post, August 29, 2012

Obama leads among Blacks by 94% to 0%.

Latinos

Obama 65%
Romney 26%

Women



"A Republican strategist said something interesting and revealing on Friday, though it largely escaped attention in the howling gusts of punditry over Mitt Romney’s birth certificate crack and a potential convention-altering hurricane. The subject was a Ron Brownstein story outlining the demographic hit rates each party requires to win in November. To squeak out a majority, Mitt Romney probably needs to win at least 61 percent of the white vote — a figure exceeding what George H.W. Bush commanded over Michael Dukakis in 1988. The Republican strategist told Brownstein, “This is the last time anyone will try to do this” — “this” being a near total reliance on white votes to win a presidential election."

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/0...white-base.html

This is not the way for Romney to win.

__________________

"Republicans: the party that brought us 'Just Say No.' First as a drug policy, then as their entire platform." -Stephen Colbert -


Posted by Coincidence on 09-03-2012 03:04 PM:

We will always have genocide.


Posted by Rokkr on 09-03-2012 03:22 PM:

Or genicide, if bill spells it.

__________________

Admin Qualified


Posted by billgerat on 09-03-2012 08:01 PM:

Why, I'm surprised you actually thought for once rather than mindlessly posting a YouTube.

__________________

"Republicans: the party that brought us 'Just Say No.' First as a drug policy, then as their entire platform." -Stephen Colbert -


Posted by billgerat on 09-04-2012 07:44 AM:

The day before the Dem Convention, Nate Silver increases Obama's chance of winning from 73.1% to 74.8%. The GOP didn't even get a dead cat bounce from Tampa.

__________________

"Republicans: the party that brought us 'Just Say No.' First as a drug policy, then as their entire platform." -Stephen Colbert -


Posted by billgerat on 09-05-2012 07:31 AM:

Correction - the GOP got a 1% bounce from their convention.

Nate Silver now has Obama's chance of winning as 76.3% to Romney's 23.7%.

__________________

"Republicans: the party that brought us 'Just Say No.' First as a drug policy, then as their entire platform." -Stephen Colbert -


Posted by billgerat on 09-05-2012 08:09 AM:



__________________

"Republicans: the party that brought us 'Just Say No.' First as a drug policy, then as their entire platform." -Stephen Colbert -


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