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euphorbia
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Global Warmers Admit No Solutions

Friday, November 01, 2002
By Steven Milloy



No treaty will prevent global warming, says a key scientist who believes manmade climate change is happening. That's bad news for the United Nations' bureaucrats who are meeting in New Dehli to conclude a treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Perhaps instead of alarming the public about global warming, the international "climatocracy" should sweat its own dim prospects.

"The fossil fuel greenhouse effect is an energy problem that cannot be simply regulated away," wrote 18 scientists in the Nov. 1 edition of Science. Notable among the authors is Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research -- a longtime and prominent promoter of global warming fever.

Wigley et al. still maintain we're headed toward a major warm-up. They claim unchecked greenhouse gas emissions -- primarily carbon dioxide -- "could eventually produce global warming comparable in magnitude but opposite in sign to the global cooling of the last Ice Age."

Such alarmism has been the political excuse for the Kyoto global warming treaty, though many scientists dispute the notion that humans significantly affect global climate.

Wigley et al. now agree with the skeptics that a treaty requiring greenhouse gas emissions -- even in the most stringent form -- would have no significant effect on global climate and only cause economic harm.

Worldwide power consumption is now about 12 trillion watts, 85 percent of which is provided by carbon dioxide-producing coal, oil and gas. By 2050, our power need will be 30 trillion watts.

Wigley et al. flatly admit no regulation will reduce carbon dioxide emissions and triple energy output. The only hope, they say, is technology. But the requisite technology doesn't exist -- and won't any time soon.

The U.N. claims, "known technological options … that exist in operation or pilot plant stage could stabilize atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide over the next 100 years."

But Wigley et al. counter, "Energy sources that can produce 100 to 300 percent of present world power consumption without greenhouse emissions do not exist operationally or as pilot plants."

Some increased energy efficiency is certainly possible, but isn't very promising for mitigating global warming say Wigley et al.

It might be feasible to double the fuel efficiency of SUVs, for example. But "the effects of such efficiency could be overwhelmed if China and India follow the U.S. path from bicycles and mass transit to cars. Asia already accounts for more than 80 percent of petroleum consumption growth."

What about solar power?

Wigley et al. say current U.S. energy consumption might require an array of photovoltaic cells covering 26,000 square kilometers (km2); worldwide energy consumption might require about 220,000 km2 of photovoltaic cells. These requirements would triple by 2050.

"However, all the photovoltaic cells shipped from 1982 to 1998 would only cover about 3 km2."

Space-based solar power might require less than 25 percent of the area of land-based photovoltaic cells. But even with adequate research investments, that technology wouldn't deliver energy to global markets until the latter half of the century.

That schedule might be cutting it close for Manhattan, which will be under water by 2080, according to Greenpeace raving.

Wind power? Forget it. "It's often available only from remote or offshore locations."

Bio-fuels aren't the answer either, for the same reason as all other forms of "renewable" energy -- they take a lot of space to produce only a little energy, says Wigley et al.

Global-scale nuclear power from fission isn't a solution for energy needs as there's only a 30-year supply of uranium for fuel -- "hardly a basis for energy policy," according to Wigley et al.

Fusion is "the most promising long-term nuclear power source," but is in an embryonic stage of research and "cannot be relied on to aid carbon dioxide stabilization by mid-century."

My favorite technology option discussed by Wigley et al. is "planetary engineering" --blocking the sun's rays to alter the "planetary radiation balance to affect climate."

It's quite nutty. Options include putting layers of reflective dust in the upper atmosphere, increasing cloud cover by seeding, and placing a giant mirror (2,000 kilometers wide) to act like a permanent sunspot and deflect about 2 percent of solar flux.

"Of course, large-scale geophysical interventions are inherently risky and need to be approached with caution," say Wigley et al.

Indeed. And those that propose them need to be approached with a butterfly net.

Wigley et al. conclude, "If Earth continues to warm, people may turn to advanced technologies for solutions."

Yes, they may.

On the other hand, Wigley et al.'s gloomy assessment of regulatory and technology-based solutions might just encourage policy makers to pay more attention to the junk science underlying the fantasy of manmade global warming.


//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Thank god we didn’t hand power of our economy over to the Kyoto treaty. The policy was flawed to begin with even if all this wasn’t "junk science".
Whether you like Bush or not, I think a fair minded individual needs to give him some props for not letting the opinions of others, pressure and name calling from other governments and special interests influence his policy on this one.

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Old Post 11-01-2002 02:20 PM
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Re: Global Warmers Admit No Solutions

quote:
Originally posted by euphorbia


Thank god we didn’t hand power of our economy over to the Kyoto treaty. The policy was flawed to begin with even if all this wasn’t "junk science".
Whether you like Bush or not, I think a fair minded individual needs to give him some props for not letting the opinions of others, pressure and name calling from other governments and special interests influence his policy on this one.



Ho Ho Ho

I suppose the fact that he and many others within the present administration have been heavily involved in the oil/energy industry had nothing to do with it. Not to mention financial backers. I don't think he was refusing to sign Kyoto because he didn't agree with scientific findings. He just wants to protect the US economy, nothing more and nothing less. Nothing noble about it whatsoever. Just pragmatism.

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Old Post 11-01-2002 03:18 PM
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euphorbia
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Re: Re: Global Warmers Admit No Solutions

quote:
Originally posted by funkyrooster


He just wants to protect the US economy, nothing more and nothing less.



I agree, but I do find it noble...much more noble than the last president who signed on to flawed treaties, and treaties giving power of our economy and other matters over to other governments on his way out of office for popularity reasons..

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Old Post 11-01-2002 03:22 PM
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Re: Re: Re: Global Warmers Admit No Solutions

quote:
Originally posted by euphorbia


I agree, but I do find it noble



A definition of Noble:

"possessing, characterized by, or arising from superiority of mind or character or of ideals or morals"

Sound like Bush to you? Or any other politician for that matter?

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Old Post 11-01-2002 03:32 PM
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Global Warmers Admit No Solutions

quote:
Originally posted by funkyrooster


A definition of Noble:

"possessing, characterized by, or arising from superiority of mind or character or of ideals or morals"

Sound like Bush to you? Or any other politician for that matter?




Actually, I don’t think Bush is smart enough to be this actor everyone tries to make him out to be, Its painfully obvious when he is faking it…and I like it like that. But I think he is dogmatic, does fear his god and has morals. He did it cause he knew it was bad for this country and knew it was a flawed policy...with the help of others I’m sure...which further study he was pushing for has brought to light. I don’t think he is the kind of man who would let the earth parish so his buddies could make lots of money polluting the earth…it would take a wholly evil person to do that.
I don’t think he is a complicated or devious man. I think he is simple - which is good and bad…when it comes to things like this it is good imo.
Doing what is best for this country is why he and his cabinet are there...there is no other reason. He did his job in this instance even under great pressure that would have been easy for him to fold under.

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The immediate problem for me is that Weaselspoor and myself live right next to a river. If the arctic does melt, I don't really want to have to swim to the kitchen

The problem about 'doing what is best for his country' type thinking is that if we all behaved like that, we'd all be fucked. Look at the French. They won't accede to any changes to the common agricultural policy in Europe because their farmers are so inefficient they would go out of business if placed in direct competition with British or German producers. Result? Expensive and wasteful production which leads to massive overproduction and subsidisation which in turn results in a vast waste of money and resources. However, the French Government is doing 'What is right' for France. It just means that everyone else has to cop all the flak because of it.

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Old Post 11-01-2002 03:59 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by funkyrooster
The immediate problem for me is that Weaselspoor and myself live right next to a river. If the arctic does melt, I don't really want to have to swim to the kitchen

The problem about 'doing what is best for his country' type thinking is that if we all behaved like that, we'd all be fucked.



I disagree. The health of the earth is in our best interests since we sit on it...if the world is destroyed or over polluted its not like the just States are going to be left floating in space. I understand the ecosystem and know we are all linked when it comes to such matters.
Well being of other countries are also in our best interest and are prolific to peace and health and minimizing the numbers of people risking death to float to our and other's shores on a piece of styrofoam to get away their own. Our best interests are usually very connected to others best interests and in the situation of the topic of this thread it would have done no one any good and caused destruction to my country. I’m glad they recognized as flawed policy.
I proclaim my ignorance on the France bit you posted about, but if it is a "waste of money and resources" I dont understand how it could be good for France.

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quote:
Originally posted by euphorbia

I proclaim my ignorance on the France bit you posted about, but if it is a "waste of money and resources" I dont understand how it could be good for France.



Because it would be more expensive for them to reform their farming and production methods than it is to keep the present system afloat at the moment.

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Old Post 11-01-2002 04:25 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by funkyrooster


Because it would be more expensive for them to reform their farming and production methods than it is to keep the present system afloat at the moment.



Whether or not this policy is good for them in the long run is highly debatable though no?

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Governments generally don't think long term. And when French farmers decide on Industrial action, they really go for it in a big way.
Its almost admirable.

Nnnnnnnngh

Its very nearly the weekend. I cannot start debating the pro's and con's of France's agricultural policy.

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Old Post 11-01-2002 04:44 PM
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Bah! just admit Im right you filthy hippie! :cuss:


j/j

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quote:
Originally posted by euphorbia
Bah! just admit Im right you filthy hippie! :cuss:
j/j



Hah! I'd rather die first you evil black hearted bitch.:bash:

I'm off. I need to go to the Gym and watch women sweat.

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Old Post 11-01-2002 04:58 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by funkyrooster


Hah! I'd rather die first you evil black hearted bitch.:bash:

I'm off. I need to go to the Gym and watch women sweat.




Ill have you know my heart is a lovely shade of periwinkle you crumb of crusty crack whore vaginal ......um...stuff!!!

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SocialParasite
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quote:

pressure and name calling from other governments and special interests influence his policy on this one.



:laughhard:

quote:

But I think he is dogmatic, does fear his god



And that makes a good leader how?

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Old Post 11-01-2002 07:22 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by SocialParasite


:laughhard:


care to put a little more effort into that?



quote:
And that makes a good leader how?


That doesn’t make him a good leader, the fact that he did the best thing for this country under a whole shit load of pressure makes him a good leader in this instance

As far as him fearing his god and being dogmatic, applying the modern form of Christianity that is relative to him (jesus loves the little children and this little light of mine sort of mickey mouse shit) I just said he had morals. I don’t believe he is a wholly corrupt man who would watch the world die so someone could make some money and any one who would say that says it out of blinding hate since there is no substance to back that claim.

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quote:

care to put a little more effort into that?



I don't need to. A blind man could follow the money trail that leads to his decisions. Campaign contributions must be disclosed, right? Follow the the oil drops and electric meters.

Both sides are up to their eyes in special interest shit, and it's a damn shame. The leaders of our country no longer do what is in the best interest of the nation, but rather what's in the best interest of their campaign contributers. The only time anything gets done anymore is around election time. Politicians don't care about their constituents, they care about being in their seats of power. They do whatever is in the best interests of keeping their power.

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euphorbia
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quote:
Originally posted by SocialParasite


I don't need to. A blind man could follow the money trail that leads to his decisions. Campaign contributions must be disclosed, right? Follow the the oil drops and electric meters.

Both sides are up to their eyes in special interest shit, and it's a damn shame. The leaders of our country no longer do what is in the best interest of the nation, but rather what's in the best interest of their campaign contributers. The only time anything gets done anymore is around election time. Politicians don't care about their constituents, they care about being in their seats of power. They do whatever is in the best interests of keeping their power.



So you think the current administration would have let the world slowly die so someone could make some money? You think if they thought or knew that global warming was going to kill us...bring the world to an end, destroy plant and animal life, melt ice caps and they could stop it they would just say fuck it...money first? What are they going to spend their money on if they are all dead sp? Crack whores in hell? Them, their families and their money are all apart of this earth.
And to say "Politicians don't care about their constituents... " is folly as well in this country because they wouldn’t exist as a politician if most of the people they rep weren’t happy, so at least to have a successful political career they better take their voters into account and produce something some of the time...whether or not it is in the best interest of the nation and the nation's future relies heavily on the intelligence of the voters the politician represents. So in the least they care for selfish reasons. I don’t think all politicians are bad, I do think some are bad but by their individual merit. And those same oil companies and what ever else is in your mantra also gave fat bucks to the dems...I think maybe you need to look at those figures. Every big company donates to anyone who might get into the house and if you remember correctly Enron got nothing from this administration though the last one had its hands in Enron affairs. So if you can back up that every corp that donates to the administration is having its back scratched fine but Enron is one mark against your argument. His policy on this one stands on sound reason, saved us from all sorts of bullshit and was the right decision. You have nothing to back up your claims other than some companies that would have suffered had given him money...when in fact not just those companies but every company and farmer and regular civilian in this country would have been touched by Kyoto in the long run…all because of popular junk science.

Last edited by euphorbia on 11-01-2002 at 08:51 PM

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quote:
Originally posted by euphorbia


So you think the current administration would have let the world slowly die so someone could make some money? You think if they thought or knew that global warming was going to kill us...bring the world to an end, destroy plant and animal life, melt ice caps and they could stop it they would just say fuck it...money first?




isn't that what every administration has been doing for the past twenty to thirty years we've known that pollution was getting out of control?


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Old Post 11-02-2002 05:52 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by morgana



isn't that what every administration has been doing for the past twenty to thirty years we've known that pollution was getting out of control?





No.
Pollution is our country has decreased and its been given a nice boost by the Clean Air Act George Bush Sr signed.
The Endangered Species Act, the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act and others have all been instrumental. I posted on this some time ago with charts and graphs and other neato little factoids, I’m too tired to find the thread now, will do it tomorrow.

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The US pollution record is shit. The opinions of these scientists may be right, and we have already fucked things up too far to prevent things being changed. I am not going to award Bush Jr a big gold star on the basis of a letter in what is effectively a pop science magazine. If they are right in their opinions (which aren't really scientific, but nor would they claim them to be, else they would have published the article in a proper journal; possibly there is a more scientific paper out there that they refer to), then the anti-Kyoto line is 'we have fucked it all up already, no point in stopping now'; what they are taking a position on is the matter of how much damage we have already done. If the juggernaut is already rolling, then the sea will rise (quite a lot of the US will go, as well as much of Europe) and we can't stop it; if the process is slower than that (which would have Bush's position, phorbie, he has never said that the process has gone too far and we are all fucked, he maintains the opposite of what this article says, that there isn't any need to rush; even if the article is right, it is hardly a triumph for Bush's understanding of the subject because it just makes him more wrong).

Global warming theories themselves are not 'junk science'; the calls for carbon sinks were dubious in that regard, however (which were opposed by most scientists but pushed by a couple of governments). I gather that the US government's own report, acknowledged by Bush Jr, said that there was real cause for concern that human activity was causing runaway global warming.

What I would really like to see is the article in Science (which is hard to get hold of here).

One thing that I will note the use of, by the journalist who wrote this, is that when they say 'many scientists disagree' he don't mean 'most scientists disagree' as most scientists in the field are of the opinion that man made global warming is taking place and that it dominates the warming that we see. There isn't uninamity however, nor can there be; much of this stuff is barely science at all because you can't do experiments but rather just try to make better computer models of the climate; the climate is incredibly hard to model, however. People who are waiting for scientific uninamity on cause and speed of global warming are not understanding the nature of the problem. Scientists, although they will have beliefs of their own about the cause and severity, generally (and properly) restrict themselves in print to only saying what is pretty definite; people who don't understand the nature of that field of science might be expecting definititude but they are doomed to disappointment.

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Old Post 11-02-2002 10:46 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by Smug Git
(which would have Bush's position, phorbie, he has never said that the process has gone too far and we are all fucked, he maintains the opposite of what this article says, that there isn't any need to rush; even if the article is right, it is hardly a triumph for Bush's understanding of the subject because it just makes him more wrong).





I don’t think you’re being very fair and you’re missing a lot of the point which is...the more they study it, the more different conclusions they come up with. Bush wanted more study on the subject before he signed our economy away and Jesus thank god.
If I were a little more saturated with my libertarian leanings (conspiracy conspiracy oh my!) Id say the whole Kyoto brouhaha was an effort of other governments to gain control of our economy...but Ill sit here in my tin foil hat and just not go there
Fact is what the article says is besides the point and every American should be happy our current leader didn’t allow a flawed treaty (that even if global warming is what they say it is would have only made things worse) pushed by Clinton to go through that would have handed our economy over to anything but the American people and its elected leaders.

On a side note, what pollution record are you talking about? Or rather what are you referencing when you say our pollution record is “shit”?

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Old Post 11-02-2002 02:09 PM
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That signing Kyoto was 'signing away the US economy' was a load of prpaganda spread by companies who didn't want to do it (they tried it here, but, surprise! we still have an economy). Companies ought to oppose changes like that, because they are only really there to make money; it is the work of the government to disseminate a fair point of view as regards the science and make a decision if need be. Companies shouldn't have the role of government, they should make money and oppose things that might cost them money; government should be independent enough of businesses to make decisions.

There is probably not going to be a clearer case, with more research; you can't do experiments, you can't wait and see, you can only take the educated guess based on what the scientific community say. These guys appear to think that we have already fucked the environment past the point of realistic arrest, but I am not aware that this is a majority view. As far as the atmospheric physicists that I have asked are concerned (there is an atmospheric physics group at my college, which is on the same floor of the building as me; I had a long discussion with one of them on this very issue), the majority view is that the climate change is caused by human action and that action must be taken by governments if they wish to ameliorate its effects. It is never going to be unanimous, there probably aren't going to be significantly better answers.

'Do more research' is often a good policy, but it probably won't lead to much better understanding in this case because of the nature of the problem. Politicians like to say 'do more research' because then they can tell people what they want to hear ('it'll be OK') and avoid the heat that might come from acting on it. For years after Reagan made that nonsensical statement about Mt St Helens being worse for the environment than all the cars in the US, people were still repeating it as if it was true.

Kyoto wasn't flawed; the US killed it. How would the other countries who had to comply with Kyoto (and many have even when the US made the whole thing a waste of time) going to gain control of the US economy when they were having to meet Kyoto criteria too?

CO2 emissions was the main pollution to which I was referring (not poisonous pollution). The problem with CO2 emissions reduction is that oil and coal release C02 into the atmosphere that hasn't been in the atmosphere for millions of years. Burning trees, incidentally, is not such a problem because the C02 that they release was in the atmosphere recently (ie, before that tree grew). C02's effect is a physical one, which is more up my street; I wouldn't discourse much on chemical pollutions like dioxins and PCBs because my understanding of that is not much past anyone else's (I can teach chemistry to schoolkids up to A LEvel (exams that we sit when 18), but physics is my main interest).

It is of course possible that the global warming is entirely natural or that it is our fault but it is now unstoppable; I don't see how those questions will ever be answerable unless we just wait and see, and if people want to do that then they are insane as far as I am concerned.

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Last edited by Smug Git on 11-02-2002 at 02:40 PM

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Old Post 11-02-2002 02:35 PM
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euphorbia
caustic milk - hybrid

Registered: Apr 2001
Location: behind the irony curtain
Posts: 19147

I wholly believe Kyoto is flawed and its not like governments who have signed on to haven’t admitted that too. Im not supportive of signing on to flawed treaties just for the sake of signing a treaty.
here are some good posts on the subject done in the past:

http://www.asylumnation.com/asylum/...highlight=kyoto

quote:
Originally posted by euphorbia
Seems the EU would rather sign flawed useless treaties in some simplistic show than to work on a treaty that means anything. I mean, look what happened to Kyoto..they cut it up so much most of the people who signed it said it would have little to no effect but was important as symbolism. Its a bunch of crap.


quote:
Originally posted by euphorbia
"The European Union said earlier this week that while the draft accord did not meet all its concerns, it believed it would strengthen the BWC, Reuters said."

"Even though I understand some of the rationale, I was rather surprised by the U.S. argument at this stage," Japanese Ambassador Seiichiro Noboru told The Associated Press news agency.

Come on now..
If the shits flawed, and you understand what the us concerns are shut the fuck up and get it right. Who needs a flawed or worthless treaty? Fuck symbolism.




http://www.asylumnation.com/asylum/...highlight=kyoto

Lots of flames to be had I my expense which Im sure many will find satisfaction in

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Old Post 11-02-2002 02:56 PM
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Smug Git
Arrogance Personified

Registered: Aug 2001
Location: Hilbert Space
Posts: 36297

UK emissions per capita and in total have both gone down.

How is this flawed, or a bad thing?

You can see the data here:

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/mi/mi_re..._ID=577&fID=r15

You can see amount per head (where Canada and Australia are also bad, although the US is out ahead) and also total output, for the last 15 years up tp and icluding 1999.

It ought to be pretty easy to work out how much CO2 is produced, as you just need to know how much oil and coal was produced and bought in (and then deduct whatever was used in plastics, etc) and see how much C02 would be released by combustion of those fuels. There must be data for 2000, 2001 and 2002 available too.

All treaties are 'flawed' in some respects, because every agreement between independent parties will be something of a compromise. Kyoto didn't go far enough, but better than nothing; because the US wouldn't sign it, what we got was nothing.

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Last edited by Smug Git on 11-02-2002 at 03:14 PM

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Old Post 11-02-2002 03:10 PM
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funkyrooster
King Leer

Registered: Jun 2002
Location: Just to the right of the moon
Posts: 3141

The reason the earth is warming up is because I'm so HOT!

Woof!

PS Please don't take this lighthearted, although undeniably accurate, statement as a sign that I am not taking the debate seriously. Its just that, at the moment, its half ten on a Sunday night, and I am stuck in a small office on a military base in the middle of nowhere. I am stuck here because I left my shower on while I did some ironing. Little did I know that the drain was blocked. Result? A flood of biblical proportions sweeping down my corridor. Consequently, my neighbour, a very big and angry Paratrooper, is looking for me because now all his knives are rusty, and he wants to clean them with my throat.

However, while I'm here, I'm going to have a wank over a picture I found of Euphorbia dressed as a schoolgirl and sucking a lollipop

Aim........Fire!

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Last edited by funkyrooster on 11-03-2002 at 10:33 PM

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